Tuesday, January 18, 2005

Bad Intel, No UN Support, Bad War

We went to war in Kosovo without UN support, with bad intelligence, and we probably killed as many Serbs as Kosovar Albanians were killed by Serbs prior to the war. The UN was never going to support Kosovo, so we bombed without it. There was no threat to us, and the suffering of the Kosovar Albanians was no worse in comparison to the Iraqis.

The actual numbers of pre-war dead in Kosovo are relatively low, but first I think you have to ask yourself how many people you assumed had been killed before we got involved. Estimates of dead before we bombed ranged up to 100,000 (from Defense Secretary Cohen). Actual body count has it at about 4,000 (almost all military age men, but some women and children), with a possible 3,000 officially missing (still almost all men). Tragic, for sure, but it is not genocide. Then the question is is it justified to pre-empt genocide? In any event, even the numbers proposed by Cohen pale compared to the number dead from Saddam. After Kosovo, the US had a virtual news blackout in major media, but I did find this to explain the contention from reasonably reliable sources:
http://www.cnn.com/2001/LAW/06/columns/fl.mariner.kosovo.06.20/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/781310.stm

And this post lists news articles from the 80's, when the Kosovar Albanians were the bad guys:
http://www.kosovo.com/press1980.html

I also found this interesting. This is the 1999 SOTU speech from Bill Clinton concerning Kosovo, and his justification for it:

All Americans can be proud that our leadership helped to bring peace in Northern Ireland. All Americans can be proud that our leadership has put Bosnia on the path to peace. And with our NATO allies, we are pressing the Serbian government to stop its brutal repression in Kosovo, to bring those -- thank you, thank you, to bring those responsible to justice and to give the people of Kosovo the self-government they deserve.

Sounds like we were bombing them into democracy to me, but I find it interesting that a place that we were to bomb incessantly for 79 days a few months later gets practically nothing from Clinton in the speech. At least George was focused on his preemptive war. And of course, Kosovo is not a raging democracy yet either.

And, "successful" Kosovo today:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3928153.stm

Kosovo was a preemtive war with bad intelligence, no UN support, and no resolution.

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